A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
